This is The Time To Buy a Home
Published on March 4, 2009 By KFC Kickin For Christ In Current Events

People are losing jobs all over the place.  No news there.  My own family hasn't been unaffected.  One of my sons has recently been advised that he, along with his co-workers, are being forced to take 10 furlough days.  That is, they have to take 10 days without pay by August, with four of these days taken by the end of March. 

He and his wife are thankful they still are working but for a young couple just starting out, this is a blow to their incomes.  This will be two full weeks unpaid for them.  Both have been on the job for about a year without a raise in pay and no vacation days.  They are also losing other benefits to help their companies cut costs and keep them on the job. 

The handwriting is on the wall. 

On the other hand my husband came home a few days ago and said there's a need for accountants and with these new changes things are confusing as ever.  His job security is quite good. 

For instance, first time home buying is now the big thing.  If you're a first time home buyer and you buy a home by December 1st  of this year (don't ask why that date) you can get an $8,000 tax credit.  This is a great deal for brand new homeowners.  You don't even have to wait to file the "09" taxes.  You can take it on this year "08" taxes.  Now the stipulation is you have to live in this house for 5 years.  If you don't, you have to pay it back. 

Who's going to keep track of this?   

Also, if you bought a house between Sept-December of "08" you also get a tax credit of $7500 (why not $8,000?) but you have to pay it back over a period of so many years at $500 a year regardless of how long you plan on living there.  I don't understand why they don't just make it easy and give them both the same deal. 

This is going to create a taxing nightmare for accountants. 

The powers to be have to be doing this on purpose to create confusion.  Whoever is coming up with these rules are creating chaos in the tax world for those who have to do these tax returns in the upcoming years.  Of course, in the long run, this will only cost the consumer as their tax bill from their local accountant will most assuredly be higher as this all gets figured out. 

So now we're telling our three sons, if you can, go out and buy a house.  It would be like getting the first year's mortgage for nothing.   The problem is not a one of them can be assured they would stay in one place for five years.  With the job insecurity such as it is, I'm wondering how many dare to take this offer? 

 

 


Comments
on Mar 04, 2009

Not worth it IMO - yes, $8k is a nice boost, but what if house prices fall further? The way things are looking currently I'd think it more likely that they'd fall by that amount than rise (in the short term that is, rather than the long term). Then you have to consider the cost of renting against the cost of borrowing money to buy a house. Last I looked (it could well have changed though) it was cheaper to rent than buy. Finally, as you mentioned, you have job security. If you borrow a lot of money and buy a house, then should you lose your job (or face a hefty pay cut) you'll be in a more difficult position than if renting. That is if renting it's easier to switch houses (so you can downgrade), and you don't have the worry of house prices falling and causing you to go into negative equity and lose all your assets.

I'm planning on carrying on renting for the time being, then in a few years when the outlook has improved (and I've hopefully still got my job) I'll be able to count on a source of income for the future (since I'm far less likely to lose it post-recession), and will have saved up a bit more in the meantime further helping.

Also the $8k figure isn't what you'd actually save, assuming there is at least some awareness of it - the $8k saving would increase demand relative to no $8k saving, meaning prices will be slightly higher (or not quite as low) as the alternative, which will offset some (but not all) of that saving.

on Mar 05, 2009

Not worth it IMO - yes, $8k is a nice boost, but what if house prices fall further?

Oh I think it's worth it but only if you're staying put and can know that for sure. 

I recently sold my house (in December) for about $170K more than I bought it for 11 years ago.  I sold it for less than it was worth a year ago but I still, as the numbers indicate, did ok.  We had to come off our high horse and get real but by staying ahead of the market we sold it.  Originially we were told we could sell it for much higher which only meant by profit margin would have been that much higher. 

Now on top of making a profit I also had no rent for those 11 years.  Anything we made went into that house.  We were fortunate because this was our third home and we started it off with a tiny mortgage which we were able to pay off by the third year of owning it. 

So even if you bought a home today and sold it for the same exact price later, just the fact that your money isn't going out the window when you pay rent is worth something and it's yours.  Anyhow most likely you can buy low now and sell high later....if you're willing to sit in it for a while .

I've been hearing about houses being offered for as low as $40-69K in places.  You can't beat those prices.  I've also heard of others who bought their homes for $300K and are hoping to sell for $110K.    That's a ridiculous situation to be in but great for a first time buyer because that means once the economy rebounds you have maybe $200K in equity from day one. 

Oh I definitely think if you are stable in your job you should go out and grab a deal while this deal is still on the table.  You'd be nuts not to. 

The only thing is NOT to buy above your means.  That's the whole name of the game. 

 

 

on Mar 06, 2009

Just the fact that your money isn't going out the window when you pay rent is worth something

It'll go on mortage payments instead! If you're a first time buyer then you're not going to have the savings to buy the house, so you're going to have to borrow to buy it. It's definitely more attractive if you've got lots of savings, since the interest on your savings is much lower than the interest on money you borrow, effectively meaning that the comparison between renting and buying is much more favourable.

The key problem, as you mentioned, is the stability of your job - if I was practically 100% certain that I wouldn't lose my job in the next few years I'd buy since it's near (or already at) the bottom of the market, but it's just not worth the risk without such confidence, especially since a frequent reaction of firms is to cut down on recruitment (greatly reducing the number of jobs available for younger people), and I think there may have been studies that show that you're more likely to get fired if you're young than a bit more matured (although I don't know how reliable that is, since many firms will also look to replace more expensive older workers with less experienced and cheaper younger workers).

on Mar 06, 2009

It'll go on mortage payments instead! If you're a first time buyer then you're not going to have the savings to buy the house, so you're going to have to borrow to buy it.

depends.  How good are you at saving and scrimping?  Are you willing to eat mac and cheese three times a week in lieu of steak?  Are you willing to get an occasional pizza takeout (better yet make homemade) and skip eating out at restaurants? 

When I was a first time home buyer I had a down payment but I understand that seems to be a lost art today.  Actually my very first home was a brand new 3 bedroom mobile home in a mobile home park.  We stayed there for three years and sold it for more than we paid for it.  So the money left over from that sale got us into our next home and off we went.  So in effect again it was like living rent free for three years.  Yes we had a small mortgage but it was cheaper than renting and we got it all back after three years. 

The key problem, as you mentioned, is the stability of your job - if I was practically 100% certain that I wouldn't lose my job in the next few years I'd buy since it's near (or already at) the bottom of the market, but it's just not worth the risk without such confidence,

yes, I agree. Job security right now is the key.  If you're married and you're both working that helps especially if you can keep your mortgage and taxes reasonable (no more than 30% of your income).   But you've got to live somewhere right?  And you have to pay something right?   It's usually almost always beneficial to put the money into something you own rather than something you don't because you're not going to lose (unless you buy high).  Sometimes it's cheaper to own than to rent on a monthly basis. 

The other idea is to take advantage of the deal being offered (8K benefit by Dec 1) and take that money and put aside just in case which is what my son is thinking of doing.  Then you've at least gained the interest if you do decide to sell within the five years. 

The thought is that after we get out of this recession, inflation is going to be waiting for us.  So that house you pay right now for  $110K may be worth quite a bit more in five years.  I quite expect gas to go thru the roof as well so it may be a very good idea for people to get out and find the best car for them with the highest gas mileage they can get.  That's what we're looking at right now. 

 

on Mar 07, 2009

Are you willing to eat mac and cheese three times a week in lieu of steak?  Are you willing to get an occasional pizza takeout (better yet make homemade) and skip eating out at restaurants?

Nah, cheese is too expensive - I have to try and settle for (non-cheese) spaghetti/pasta based meals! I do sometimes make my own pizzas as a treat though (although it takes so long I usually just settle for the takeaway ones).

I'm betting the recession has another 2 or so years to run it's course though, so I'm hoping that if I get my timing right I can get the best of both worlds - job security and a super-cheap house.